What is the probability that it was one of A3s bulbs

Posted on 2014-04-25 07:00:00 in Statistics by ERIC

A shopkeeper’s buys a particular kind of light bulb from these manufacturies A₁, A₂ and A₃. He buys 30% of his stock from A₁, 45% from A₂ and 25% from A₃. In the past he has found that 2% of A₃’s bulb is faulty whereas only 1% of A₁’s is and A₂’s are. Suppose that he chooses a bulb and finds it is faulty. What is the probability that it was one of A₃’s bulbs?

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