Would anyone please help me answer this question?

Posted on 1970-01-01 00:00:00 in Math by JEUS

Suppose there is a lottery with 100 tickets numbered 1 to 100. The lottery is fair so the winner will be randomly chosen from one of those tickets. Jane owns ticket #21. If W is the claim that Jane wins the lottery, then her prior probability for W is 1/100. (Her prior for ~W is 99/100.) 

(a) Jane learns E: a ticket with number 20 or 21 or … or 29 won. What is her likelihood of W in light of E? What is her likelihood of ~W in light of E? Use Bayes’ rule to determine Jane’s posterior probability of W given E, and also ~W given E. (b) Jane then learns E: a ticket with an odd number won. What is her likelihood of W given E in light of F? What is her likelihood of ~W given E in light of F? Use Bayes’ rule to determine Jane’s posterior probability of W given E&F, and also ~W given E&F.

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